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Difference between revisions of "Talk:Raster of Guk"
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(25 choose 0)*0.05^0*0.95*(25) = 0.28 | (25 choose 0)*0.05^0*0.95*(25) = 0.28 | ||
| − | 1.0-0.28 = 72% chance for Raster to spawn. | + | 1.0-0.28 = 72% chance for Raster to spawn at least one time. |
Revision as of 00:01, 25 April 2016
Elaborating on the math the author omits:
Probability that Raster spawns in 10 hour window is 1 minus the probability that Raster spawns exactly 0 times over 10 hours.
10 hours RL camp recommended by author. 10*60 = 600 minute recommended camp.
Assume 72 RL minute per EQ day.
600/72 = 8.3 EQ days over 10 RL hours
Assume 3 spawn opportunities per EQ day.
8.3*3 = 25 spawns in 10 RL hours.
Using binomial distribution to find probability Raster spawns ZERO times:
(n choose k)*p^(k)*q^(n-k) = (25 choose 0)*0.05^0*0.95*(25) = 0.28
1.0-0.28 = 72% chance for Raster to spawn at least one time.
