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Difference between revisions of "Sakuragi's Warrior Guide"

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(→‎The Mathematics of Threat Generation)
(→‎The Mathematics of Threat Generation)
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So the wizard will die, but everyone else is looking pretty good. The problem is that procs (and taunt) are horribly random and fights are short.  Suppose that our epic warrior is cursed by the random number generator gods and does not proc/taunt at all.  Suddenly he is only generating 46 hate/sec.  Our Shaman fired slow as soon as the mob hit camp, so it takes our warrior 12 seconds to generate enough threat for the shaman to sit down again.  If the group is killing mobs every 25 seconds, that means our RNG-cursed warrior is tanking a whopping 50% of the time.
 
So the wizard will die, but everyone else is looking pretty good. The problem is that procs (and taunt) are horribly random and fights are short.  Suppose that our epic warrior is cursed by the random number generator gods and does not proc/taunt at all.  Suddenly he is only generating 46 hate/sec.  Our Shaman fired slow as soon as the mob hit camp, so it takes our warrior 12 seconds to generate enough threat for the shaman to sit down again.  If the group is killing mobs every 25 seconds, that means our RNG-cursed warrior is tanking a whopping 50% of the time.
 +
 +
Fine you say, but is the chance of being so cursed by the RNG gods?  Higher than you think.  For an exponential process exp[-ax] the mean is 1/a.  In practice this means if you are due for a proc every 20 seconds (255 dex), you'll have to wait 20 seconds on average (not 10).  The worst case is much worse:
 +
 +
{| class="eoTable3 sortable"
 +
|-
 +
! Player !! Hate/sec
 +
|-
 +
| Epic Monk + Stave of Shielding || 55
 +
 +
{| class="eoTable3 sortable"
 +
|-
 +
! Dex !! Proc !! PPM !! Average !! 50% !! 25% !! 5%
 +
|-
 +
| 255 || Both || 3.00 || 19.50 || 14 || 27 || 58
 +
|-
 +
| 230 || Both || 2.78 || 21.08 || 15 || 29 || 63
 +
|-
 +
| 200 || Both || 2.51 || 23.36 || 16 || 32 || 70
 +
|-
 +
| 170 || Both || 2.25 || 26.16 || 18 || 36 || 78
 +
|-
 +
| 255 || Main || 2.00 || 29.50 || 20 || 41 || 88
 +
|-
 +
| 140 || Both || 1.99 || 29.72 || 21 || 41 || 89
 +
|-
 +
| 230 || Main || 1.85 || 31.88 || 22 || 44 || 96
 +
|-
 +
| 200 || Main || 1.68 || 35.29 || 24 || 49 || 106
 +
|-
 +
| 170 || Main || 1.50 || 39.50 || 27 || 55 || 118
 +
|-
 +
| 140 || Main || 1.32 || 44.83 || 31 || 62 || 134
 +
|}
 +
 +
So if you have two proccing and weapons and 255 dex, you'll have to wait on average 19.5 seconds for a proc.  50% of time you'll get one inside of 14 seconds, 25% of the time you'll have to wait 27 seconds, and 5% of the time you'll have to wait almost a minute.

Revision as of 00:51, 14 October 2013

UNDER CONSTRUCTION


The Mathematics of Threat Generation

The takeaway here is that you want fast weapons with good ratios that also proc high-threat spells, while getting as much haste and dexterity as possible. If you are allergic to math, skip this section.

As a warrior, your primary means of generating threat is by beating on said monster. Every time you swing your weapon, hit or miss, you will generate WeaponDamage+DamageBonus aggro. Some examples: 

 * L40 Warrior with a  Short Sword of the Ykesha in the mainhand: 8+5 = 13 hate per swing
 * L40 Warrior with a  Short Sword of the Ykesha in the mainhand: 8+0 = 8 hate per swing
 * L60 Warrior with a  Blade of Strategy in the mainhand: 14+11 = 25 hate per swing
 * L60 Warrior with a  Blade of Tactics in the offhand: 14+0 = 14 hate per swing

This means that as you level up and increase your damage bonus, fast weapons generate relatively more hate than slow weapons. A 9/18 Jade Mace is actually putting out more melee hate per second (ratio (9+11)/18 = 1.11) than the Blade of Strategy (ratio (14+11)/24 = 1.05).

Your secondary means of generating threat is by equipping a weapon that procs a spell. Your chance to proc is dependent purely on your dexterity: the game computes the number of procs per minute you get (0.5 + 1.5 (dex/255) for the mainhand, half that for the offhand) and then distributes them over your swings. Some examples: 

 * 255 dex, 60 delay weapon, 10 swings per minute, 20% chance to proc per swing
 * 255 dex, 30 delay weapon with 100% haste, 40 swings per minute, 5% chance to proc per swing

It's not that hard to put these together (along with estimates for dual wield, double/triple attack, and so on) into a spreadsheet that lets you figure out the estimated aggro for each pair of weapons. Some results (at Level 60, 255 dexterity, 100% haste):

Primary Secondary Damage/sec Hate/sec
Sceptre of Destruction Sceptre of Destruction 78 98
Feverblade, Bane of the Shissar Sword of the Shissar 68 90
Willsapper Blade of Strategy 68 80
Blade of Strategy Sword of the Shissar 63 79
Veldrak's Short Sword Veridix's Shortblade 60 79
Blade of the Black Dragon Eye Ringed Mace of the Ykesha 57 78
Blade of the Black Dragon Eye Dagas 60 70
Ringed Mace of the Ykesha Ringed Mace of the Ykesha 52 70
Blade of Strategy Blade of Tactics 62 66
Sarnak Warhammer Silken Whip of Ensnaring 54 65
Ykeshan War Club Ykeshan War Club 44 64
Sebilite Croaking Dirk Fist of Zek 63 50
Blood Point Blood Point 54 49

Don't take these numbers as exact; I'm using data from my tests which seem to indicate that damage is 1 hate per, debuffs are 550 hate, stuns are 500, and poison/disease procs are 750. You can see the testing thread at http://www.project1999.org/forums/showthread.php?t=120110

Anyway, it may not be obvious, but these are actually pretty solid numbers. For example:

Player Hate/sec
Epic Monk + Stave of Shielding 55
Shaman chaining Turgur's Insects 550 hate/9 seconds 61
Epic Warrior 66
Wizard chaining Sunstrike 1615 hate / 9.25 seconds 175

So the wizard will die, but everyone else is looking pretty good. The problem is that procs (and taunt) are horribly random and fights are short. Suppose that our epic warrior is cursed by the random number generator gods and does not proc/taunt at all. Suddenly he is only generating 46 hate/sec. Our Shaman fired slow as soon as the mob hit camp, so it takes our warrior 12 seconds to generate enough threat for the shaman to sit down again. If the group is killing mobs every 25 seconds, that means our RNG-cursed warrior is tanking a whopping 50% of the time.

Fine you say, but is the chance of being so cursed by the RNG gods? Higher than you think. For an exponential process exp[-ax] the mean is 1/a. In practice this means if you are due for a proc every 20 seconds (255 dex), you'll have to wait 20 seconds on average (not 10). The worst case is much worse:

Player Hate/sec
Epic Monk + Stave of Shielding 55
Dex Proc PPM Average 50% 25% 5%
255 Both 3.00 19.50 14 27 58
230 Both 2.78 21.08 15 29 63
200 Both 2.51 23.36 16 32 70
170 Both 2.25 26.16 18 36 78
255 Main 2.00 29.50 20 41 88
140 Both 1.99 29.72 21 41 89
230 Main 1.85 31.88 22 44 96
200 Main 1.68 35.29 24 49 106
170 Main 1.50 39.50 27 55 118
140 Main 1.32 44.83 31 62 134

So if you have two proccing and weapons and 255 dex, you'll have to wait on average 19.5 seconds for a proc. 50% of time you'll get one inside of 14 seconds, 25% of the time you'll have to wait 27 seconds, and 5% of the time you'll have to wait almost a minute.

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