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Difference between revisions of "Talk:Pained Soul"
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If it takes 30 s to kill the PH after spawning, then 8.37 spawns will occur per hour. If the 2% spawn rate is correct, this means that after 20 h there is a 97% chance that the pained soul would have spawned. Likewise, a 1% spawn rate would me that after 20 h the likelihood that the PS would have spawned is 81%. However, since the "average" camp time for the PS is claimed to be 20 h, meaning that half of the campers get him before 20 h camped and the other half get him after 20 h, then the spawn rate would be about 0.41%. Given the number of people that I personally know who have spent more than 20 h camping the pained soul, my guess is that the 2% rate is incorrect and the real spawn rate is probably around 1%, which would means that after 60 h there is a 99% chance of him spawning. | If it takes 30 s to kill the PH after spawning, then 8.37 spawns will occur per hour. If the 2% spawn rate is correct, this means that after 20 h there is a 97% chance that the pained soul would have spawned. Likewise, a 1% spawn rate would me that after 20 h the likelihood that the PS would have spawned is 81%. However, since the "average" camp time for the PS is claimed to be 20 h, meaning that half of the campers get him before 20 h camped and the other half get him after 20 h, then the spawn rate would be about 0.41%. Given the number of people that I personally know who have spent more than 20 h camping the pained soul, my guess is that the 2% rate is incorrect and the real spawn rate is probably around 1%, which would means that after 60 h there is a 99% chance of him spawning. | ||
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| + | The above is reasonable if the average is 20h. Hard to say what the actual average is, but it's likely much more than 20h, pehaps 35. | ||
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| + | The last time I did this I went through 294 place holders before I got him; this time I've gone through 295 place holders and haven't seen him yet. While two iterations isn't much of a sample size, this is consistent with the bulk of the posts I see in the forums, with the outliers being "it took me 50-60 hours," or "I got him after one ph! (trololol)" | ||
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| + | Therefore, I expect the actual spawn rate is perhaps a third of a percent or less. | ||
Revision as of 23:02, 12 April 2019
6:40 spawn time on ph
Spawn Rate Discussion
If it takes 30 s to kill the PH after spawning, then 8.37 spawns will occur per hour. If the 2% spawn rate is correct, this means that after 20 h there is a 97% chance that the pained soul would have spawned. Likewise, a 1% spawn rate would me that after 20 h the likelihood that the PS would have spawned is 81%. However, since the "average" camp time for the PS is claimed to be 20 h, meaning that half of the campers get him before 20 h camped and the other half get him after 20 h, then the spawn rate would be about 0.41%. Given the number of people that I personally know who have spent more than 20 h camping the pained soul, my guess is that the 2% rate is incorrect and the real spawn rate is probably around 1%, which would means that after 60 h there is a 99% chance of him spawning.
The above is reasonable if the average is 20h. Hard to say what the actual average is, but it's likely much more than 20h, pehaps 35.
The last time I did this I went through 294 place holders before I got him; this time I've gone through 295 place holders and haven't seen him yet. While two iterations isn't much of a sample size, this is consistent with the bulk of the posts I see in the forums, with the outliers being "it took me 50-60 hours," or "I got him after one ph! (trololol)"
Therefore, I expect the actual spawn rate is perhaps a third of a percent or less.
